National Weather Service Five-Day Flood Outlooks

November 6, 2001

The National Weather Service has begun issuing five day flood outlooks that identify areas at risk of significant river flooding.

Flooded river crossings on trails are potentially dangerous. In many places bridges are small and unable to withstand flood waters. Rivers which have no bridges at all, but only fords at trail crossings may require the hiker to make long detours on roads. If you plan to hike in unfamiliar places be safe: check the weather, and the flood conditions in the area where you will be walking. Rivers may be flooded even when the weather is pleasant, due to previous or upstream weather events. Spring hiking presents the most significant risks.

"Flooding can result from any one, or a combination of too much rain, rapid snow melt, or floodwaters flowing downstream. The flood outlook product is an assessment of the likelihood of these factors, based on precipitation forecasts, snow cover and forecast temperature patterns," said John Jones, deputy director of the National Weather Service.

The flood outlook is developed by each of the 13 regional River Forecast Centers throughout the United States, and is available to the public through a graphical display on the Internet. An additional map showing flood potential for the contiguous 48 states will be made available through several additional websites. The 13 different River Forecast Centers throughout the United States allow the weather service to focus on local water conditions, including the potential impact of future precipitation on river levels. During the winter, the effects of river ice, ice jams and snowmelt will be considered as well.

Five of these centers cover the 7 states of the North Country Trail. They are the New England River Forecast Center (NERFC), the Mid-Altantic RFC, the Ohio RFC, the North Central RFC, and a small portion of the Missouri River Basin RFC.

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